CBI

Export Development Programme

Timber and Timber Products

Newsletter issue #21, Nov 2008.

 

 

 

 

 

Introduction

 

This is your new CBI T &TP newsletter.

 

 

In this issue:

 

 

1: CE Marking update with new dates.

2: FLEGT update

3: The Dutch government and buying policy changed.

4: Wood Products and the banking crisis.

 

 

Previous issues of the newsletters can be found at the T&TP website (only about our programme). The site is regularly updated and more and more info can be found on it. Everything is easily downloadable and it doesn’t cost you hours to find the information. This is your link to go there now:

 

http://home.scarlet.be/nvforest/CBI/CBI.html

 

Enjoy your newsletter!

 

 

1: CE Marking.

 

The implementation date for CE marking on some wood products for constructions is delayed. For most products this date was 2008. It has now become the 1st of September of 2009.

 

To refresh your memory, here is a short summary of CE marking:

 

This is the EU definition for construction products: “a product which is produced for incorporation in a permanent manner in construction works, including both buildings and civil engineering works, and which is placed on the European internal market.”

 

We’ve updated the full list of products and dates. Check this link to find your product and the date when CE is mandatory:

 

http://home.scarlet.be/nvforest/CBI/Downloads/CE%20products%20in%20groups.doc

 

See for more info about CE; newsletter 2 and 18

 

2: FLEGT Update

Cameroon has joined Malaysia, Ghana and Indonesia in starting formal VPA negotiations.  Bilateral technical working group sessions have been held in each negotiating country to examine the systems they propose to assure the legality of their timber exports to the EU. Negotiations are expected to be finalised in 2008.  Several other countries, including Liberia, Congo Brazzaville, Central African Republic and Gabon have formally indicated their intention to start negotiations.

DFID has engaged consultants to assist the European Commission Delegations in Ghana and Indonesia with FLEGT VPA preparations.  Andy Roby, currently Head of Environment and Corporate Social Responsibility at the UK Timber Trade Federation will work in Indonesia, while Jaap Vermaat, supported by Clare Brogan from the consulting firm FRR, will provide similar services in Ghana.

The European Commission has engaged consultants to undertake an impact study of potential additional options to address trade in illegal timber entering the EU but not covered by VPAs.  This will inform an impact assessment report to be published by the Commission, expected by January 2008.

The FLEGT Regulation, adopted in December 2005 specifies the formation of a committee to oversee its implementation.  The FLEGT Committee, which comprises representatives of the Commission and Member States, convened on 16 July.  The principal topic is the FLEGT Implementing Regulation, which will describe in detail how the authorities in each Member State will implement border controls for timber shipments from VPA countries when the licensing system becomes effective.

Source: Proforest website.: http://www.proforest.net

See for more info about FLEGT; newsletter 11

 

 

 

3: The Dutch government and buying policy changed.

 

Recently the Dutch government decided that, by 2010, 100% of products bought by the central government should come from sustainable sources. Municipalities need to buy 75% from sustainable sources and Provinces & Water bodies 50%. A couple of weeks ago a special commission concluded what sustainable means in the Timber sector: It means that all Timber products that come with FSC or PEFC Germany & Finland are counted as sustainable. This means that the Dutch government now finally decided to buy only FSC from the southern countries. That means that, by 2010, all tropical timber used in any central governmental building, construction etc etc need to have FSC. It is estimated that more EU countries will follow the same guidelines.

 

More info and source (Dutch Government): http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=37627

 

 

 

4: Wood Products and the banking crisis.

 

Report from Europe and the UK

 

European economic confidence severely dented by banking crisis Widely reported measures by the UK government to bailout failing banks have quelled the worst fears of European investors and depositors of an imminent and disastrous economic collapse. Steps have been taken to inject a massive amount of state money into leading retail banks and significantly reduce interest rates by several central banks, including the euro area’s European Central Bank. Nevertheless, economic confidence in Europe has  taken a severe beating over recent weeks, as evidenced by weakening currencies and forecasts that Europe may be facing its worst recession since the early 1990s.

 

UK.

In the UK, the scale of the bank rescue plan has been particularly dramatic, the government having pledged GBP400 billion to guarantee that no UK bank fails. However the very need for such drastic measures seems only to have underlined how bad things have become. By putting its full weight behind the banks, the government has signaled its determination to avoid a worst-case outcome. But confidence has been shaken to the core, while concerns are now being raised over the severe fiscal risks associated with such a large input of public money. The government is now deeply in debt, leaving no room for increased public sector spending to tide the economy over the bad times and holding out the prospect of tax increases which will further dampen private sector spending.

UK confidence was ebbing even before the real scale of the banking sector crises became clear in early October 2007. Business surveys of purchasing managers for both manufacturing and the services sector touched record lows in September. Construction is wilting as homebuilders put projects on hold and lay off workers. As much of the UK’s recent growth had been driven by the City, and based on a financial model whose defects have now been brutally exposed, expectations are that the nation’s economy will

be particularly hard hit. The UK economy now seems certain to have entered a recession during the second half of 2008. This has led to a rapid fall in the value of sterling against other currencies.

 

France.

Economic conditions in other European countries are less dire, but still the outlook is not good. Due to relatively tight regulation of the banking sector and relatively strong retail banking networks, France has had to bail out just one bank, Dexia, a small Franco-Belgian lender. This was intended merely as a precautionary, confidence-boosting measure. Nor have the French been on a huge credit binge. The household savings rate remains high. Nevertheless third-quarter GDP figures are likely to show that the

French economy is already in recession and the IMF forecasts growth of just 0.2% in 2009.

 

Germany.

Germany’s bank rescue package is backed by a state guarantee of EUR400 billion with the aim of ensuring that no ‘system-relevant’ bank will fail and no depositor will lose money. Nevertheless, indications are that Germany will not avoid a slowdown. The IMF expects no growth at all next year. Germany has sounder public finances, less indebted enterprises and more competitive wages than

others. Yet it is more dependent on exports,  so will be hit harder by a global slowdown.

 

Italy.

Italy’s banks have not been so exposed to the global crises as those in other parts of Europe partly because, as the nation’s Finance Minister recently admitted to parliament, they are ‘less advanced and sophisticated’. The government is still forecasting GDP growth of 0.5% in 2009 but this is now a minority view. The employers’ federation, Confindustria, expects the economy to shrink by 0.2% this year and 0.5% next.

 

Spain.

Spain’s banks lack liquidity but none has needed rescuing thanks to the Bank of Spain’s tight regulation and the prudence of Spanish bankers. But Spain is worse off than many others on the broader economic front. The banking crises has further undermined confidence already reeling from the effects of a burst housing bubble. The IMF now expects the economy to shrink by 0.2% next year and unemployment is rising.

 

Netherlands

The Netherlands' economic growth could slow down drastically this year due to the international credit crisis, according to a report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). One of the largest banks in the Netherlands (Fortis & ABN Amro) is nationalised. Some other major banks received huge credits from the Dutch governments. Most of the NL banks are still not trusting each other and did not give any credit to other banks. The housing marked in slowing down and rules for mortgages are becoming stricter.

 

 

Tropical hardwoods and demands.

Tropical hardwood sawnwood markets take a hit Judging by the comments of European agents and importers, the effects of the banking crises on demand for sawn hardwood have been immediate and fairly dramatic. One major supplier to the UK notes that ‘our sales of sawn hardwood were doing reasonably well until the first week of October 2008 when the panic over the stability of the banks came to a head. Demand picked up a little the week following the announcement of the bank bail-outs, but it has gone quiet again now’.

 

Overall consumption of hardwood sawn lumber in the UK and NL has taken a hit from the rapid decline in new residential construction. This has particularly affected demand in the mass production joinery and window manufacturing sector. This in turn has fed through into particularly weak demand for commodity tropical hardwood species.

 

To some extent the decline in UK demand from new residential construction has been offset this year by continuing consumption in the renovation sector. With house prices falling and credit tightening, less people are moving house but they have been spending money on improvements. The concern now is that increased nervousness over the banking crises will undermine even this source of demand while tightening public finances will reduce demand from public sector projects.

 

Demand in the Benelux countries also remains very subdued. One agent in the region suggested that importers are still carrying very high stocks of standard items. For example, sales of tropical hardwood decking fell well short of expectations this year and stocks remain very high at a time of year when they should be low. This will inevitably feed through into much reduced orders for the spring 2009 season. Given the current stock position and the obvious desire in the current market situation to avoid holding excess stock, this agent was told by one of his leading buyers not to expect any new orders for at least three months.

 

Reports are coming through of slow sales of hardwood to the Italian furniture and flooring sectors. Many Italian furniture and flooring factories are now only operating three or four days per week and several have closed permanently. This reflects both declining domestic consumption and intense competition in export markets as manufacturers from all regions are now chasing declining orders. Hardwood orders from Spanish and Portuguese manufacturers have also been declining, with the signs of particular stress in the Spanish door industry.

 

Plywood.

European plywood importers fail to step up purchasing. The credit crunch and economic slowdown has meant that European plywood importers are very reluctant to commit to purchasing in any volume while stock holdings are seen more and more as a liability. However there may be a few opportunities to find buyers before the year is out. According to a plywood trader quoted in the UK’s TTJ ‘the biggest factor in the UK and European markets at the moment is fear….Stock reduction is running ahead of demand reduction and, as we run into autumn and winter, we will see some shortages. The trade has still got some buying to do before the New Year’.

 

European imports of Chinese plywood have been declining due to recent consolidation of the Chinese plywood sector, combined with rising costs of raw material, labor and energy, and the downturn in European consumption. The same TTJ article notes that despite recent consolidation in the Chinese plywood manufacturing sector, UK buyers continue to receive huge numbers of offers of plywood from mills in China. This suggests that there is still excess supply in the pipeline, a fact also reflected in a slight softening in prices for poplar/bintangor plywood from China. In addition to slow consumption, reluctance amongst many European importers to buy Chinese plywood reflects continuing concerns over variable quality of product.

 

Meanwhile, there are signs that the price differential between Malaysian and Indonesian tropical hardwood plywood on offer to EU importers is narrowing. A relatively high price for Indonesian plywood in recent times has meant that Malaysia has been the main beneficiary of partial shift away from Chinese plywood in the EU market. However, according to the German trade journal EUWID, prices for 4X8ft BB/CC grade Indonesian plywood for shipment in October/November 2008 stand at Indo96 +32% to +34%, a decline from Indo96 +37% at the end of August. Meanwhile, over the same period Malaysian prices have risen from Indo96 +19% to +20% to Indo96 +24% to 25%. The price gap for European importers is expected to narrow further next year when EU import duties on Indonesian plywood are due to be lowered from 7% to 3.5%, equivalent to the duty currently imposed on Malaysian plywood.

 

Source and more information: http://www.globalwood.org/market1/aaw20081002e.htm

 

 

Colophon:

 

This newsletter is made by CBI’s Timber & Timber products team. If you have questions, remarks or if you want to unsubscribe to the newsletter please let us know.

 

CBI Program manager:  Peter J. van Gilst.   pgilst@cbi.eu

CBI Consultant: Rop Monster.   foresta@telebyte.nl

CBI Product Consultant: Marco Bijl.  marco@nvforest.com